The latest variant of COVID-19 to sweep the country, XBB.1.5, does not appear to cause more severe disease than its predecessors, experts say.
But it appears to be about five times more contagious than an earlier omicron variant, which was five times more contagious than the original virus, said Mehul Suthar, who studies emerging viral infections at Emory University School of Medicine. in Atlanta. “The numbers are starting to add up.”
As of December 31, XBB.1.5 accounted for more than 40% of cases in the United States, down from about 1% less than a month earlier, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Yet vaccines remain effective in preventing serious illness and death and the antiviral drug Paxlovid, given within the first few days after infection, “significantly reduces the progression to hospitalization”, said Dr Daniel Griffin, a specialist in infectious diseases at Northwell Health in New York.
“We are not back to the dark days of early 2020,” he said.
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COVID vaccines and new XB.1.5 variant: what you need to know
The main concern with any new variant is whether the vaccines and treatments will remain effective.
“The vaccines are holding up. That’s good,” said Dr. Jeremy Luban, a virus expert at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School.
But “every time you have a new creature that spreads like this, from person to person so quickly, it puts a big stress on our infrastructure – the chronically understaffed medical facilities and staff. is a problem for everyone,” he said.
Suthar led a study, published in December, showing that COVID-19 booster shots, designed to target two different variants, still offer protection against this news – and better protection than a vaccine directed only against the virus. origin. “I think we are going in the right direction,” he said.
Unfortunately, as has been the case for at least the last year with omicron and its subvariants – including this one – the vaccines aren’t as effective at preventing mild infections and illnesses.
And the medical definition of “mild” may not match that of the average person, Griffith said. “People are still quite miserable,” he said, adding that several patients have complained that a recent infection was worse than a previous one or worse than what they felt because of almost everything else. of their life.
Why is XBB.1.5 spreading so quickly?
The new variant is spreading fast, Luban said, for one of three reasons or — more likely — a combination:
- Recent holiday gatherings and travel have exposed more people and few are wearing masks.
- This variant may be more effective at transmitting from person to person. It appears to bind even more tightly than previous variants to the body’s ACE-2 receptors.
- It appears to be more resistant than earlier variants to immune system antibodies.
In New York, XBB.1.5 is the vast majority of COVID cases
In the Northeast, particularly New York, XBB.1.5 now accounts for the vast majority of COVID-19 infections, Griffin said.
At Northwell Health — which serves New York, Westchester and Long Island — COVID-19 hospitalizations are rising, but still barely half the level of this time last year. As of Tuesday, there were 783 patients hospitalized at Northwell with COVID-19, 10% of them in intensive care, compared to 545 cases a month ago and 467 cases as of November 3.
Why New Variants Pose a Threat
In early December, XBB and its subvariant accounted for less than 5% of cases, while BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants accounted for more than 60%. They now represent around 45%.
The big concern is that a future variant could be more dangerous, Luban said.
“Whenever the virus is spreading so fast and reproducing so much…could it change in a way that will affect the pandemic? We can’t predict these things,” he said.
CASES EXPLODE IN CHINA:What this could mean for the United States
And even now, while vaccines and antivirals still work against them, monoclonal antibodies don’t. Monoclonals were useful earlier in the pandemic to keep high-risk people from ending up in hospital or even getting infected.
“People whose immune system needs help, they’re just unlucky (now),” Luban said.
Luban and the others remain concerned about the continued spread of COVID-19 in China. On Dec. 1, China eased its longstanding “zero COVID” policy, and cases are thought to be skyrocketing there, although the government has not released detailed information.
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Why you should always avoid getting infected
There’s no doubt that it’s safest to avoid getting infected at all, experts said. Suthar, Griffin and Luban support vaccination with at least three doses and all three said they always wear a mask when in indoor public spaces.
“The ‘it’s okay if I get infected’ attitude isn’t the most viable,” Suthar said.
Every infection, even after a previous vaccination or infection, increases the risk of prolonged COVID — potentially debilitating symptoms that can linger for months or longer.
Dig deeper
Contact Karen Weintraub at kweintraub@usatoday.com.
Coverage of patient health and safety at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.