No. 1 Georgia (14-0), the only undefeated FBS team, is a 13.5-point favorite over No. 3 TCU (13-1). As we preview the game, let’s take a look at the numbers first. TCU has 10,523 undergraduate students while Georgia has 37,606. The average SAT score at TCU is between 1,250 and 1,300 while Georgia is 1,086. The average GPA for the freshman class of TCU was 3.64 while Georgia’s was around 3.6. So these numbers show the likelihood of a very competitive game. While these numbers may be interesting, they are, of course, completely irrelevant here.
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Actual numbers show Georgia as the dominant team. He has the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 14.7 points per game and scoring 40 points per game.
While TCU gets a similar clip of 40 points, it allows an average of 27, which ranks them 82nd in the FBS. A huge difference. Georgia is trying to become the first team to repeat as a national champion since 2011 (Alabama) while TCU is trying to win its first since 1938.
The Dawgs are healthy with wide receiver Adonai Mitchell back at full steam to add tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey to make up arguably the best receiving corps in the country. They also have talented running back Kenny McIntosh (5.5 yards per carry) as well as their Heisman runner-up, quarterback Stetson Bennett (3,856 yards, 68% completion rate). So they have a plethora of weapons at all skilled positions.
Defensively, tackle Jalen Carter might be the best player on the field and possibly the first player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. But there’s also NFL talent in almost every position, including the safety Chris Smith, cornerback Kelee Ringo and lineman Mykel Willams.
The Horned Frogs have their own Heisman runner-up in quarterback Max Duggan (3,542 passing yards), who has to play well to stand a chance. They also have a talented running back in Kendre Miller (1,399 yards) and 6-foot-4 wide receiver Quentin Johnston (59 catches, 1,076 yards). Defensively, they’re led by Navy transfer linebacker Johnny Hodges, who led the team in tackles (76). They have their own talented cornerbacks in Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton. Hodges-Tomlinson and Newton were both selected to the All-Big 12 first team.
So, you would think there is talent on both sides and it should be a competitive game. After all, didn’t last week prove TCU could play with anyone after beating No. 2 Michigan, 51-45? And didn’t Georgia survive against No. 4 Ohio State, 42-41, only after a missed field goal?
Unfortunately, this is all just a facade. Georgia is literally in a different league than TCU and I’m not talking about the SEC vs. the Big 12. Georgia’s recruiting budget is the highest in the nation, a roster full of four- and five-star players. TCU relies on transfers and players that most blue bloods ignore. Georgia is a well-oiled machine that simply recharges each year with superior talent to compete for a national championship on an annual basis. Last year, after winning the national championship, they lost 15 players to the NFL and here they are again. Finally, they also have championship pedigree, coming back from a 14-point deficit last week to defeat the Buckeyes.
TCU was selected seventh in its 10-team league. New head coach Sonny Dykes turned a 5-7 team into a 12-1 regular season champion. But the speed and physicality Georgia brings on both sides of the ball is something the Horned Frogs have never experienced. Even after scoring touchdowns with two pick-sixes against Michigan, the Horned Frogs were playing on fumes when the clock ticked zero.
The disparity in talent between the teams is significant. It says here that many TCU starters wouldn’t even step onto the field if they were playing for Georgia. The two-touchdown spread is the biggest in CFP history, but it should be at least three touchdowns. There is simply nothing here that would give any indication that Horned Frogs have a chance of victory.
So how does TCU compete? There’s only one way: take risks both offensively and defensively. They can’t think Georgia will fight like Michigan. They have to play with a certain swagger, think outside the box. Not just being creative, but actually playing the game in an unconventional way. I’m talking rigged plays, constant blitzes, and yes, playing with a sense of desperation from the start.
Georgia is the prohibitive favorite, but if the Horned Frogs can stay in the game early, they will gain confidence. It’s up to TCU to force the Dawgs to make mistakes while avoiding them at all costs. The Dawgs will score but TCU must win the turnover battle and even then will that be enough? For all of these reasons, don’t see this game remaining remotely competitive. At least that’s what it says on paper. Dawgs should play a role!
That’s exactly why I’m going to drive 3,000 miles to see the biggest upset since the 19.5-point underdog New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7, in Super Bowl III in January 1969. ! Jets quarterback Joe Namath has forever etched his name on Mount Rushmore with his “guaranteed” win. This game was in the “old” Orange Bowl while this one is taking place at the new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
As a journalist, I would never go so far as to guarantee anything, especially in this scenario. That’s why this preview reflects an honest and transparent analysis of Georgia’s superiority. But the things you can’t value are the intangibles. Just as the AFL needed a Jets victory to change the perception of professional football, college football needs a TCU victory to reverse the perception that the “little guy” doesn’t stand a chance.
I’m supposed to be impartial, but I’m going with my heart, not my head. After all, without an in-game skin, I can conceal my rooting interest.
Hope the trip is worth it. Remember you didn’t hear it here first, you only heard it here, period!
TCU, in a miracle finish, shocks the world of college football!
Oops, supposed to be neutral.